WiMAX vs 3G
The low cost of the WiMAX spectrum compared to 3G is a clear driver for service providers to enter the field of wireless services with WiMAX. This difference in cost/Hz is particularly significant in Europe, where the average 3Gspectrum cost/Hz is 1000 times higher than the average BWA/WiMAX spectrum cost/Hz. The proportion is smaller in other regions, but remains in favor of WiMAX.
Moreover the aggregate 3G spectrum is in lower frequency bands than the aggregate WIMAX spectrum. This shifts the cost/Hz on a deployed equipment basis, due to the requirement for at least twice the equipment for each doubling of the frequency. However, even with that adjustment it is clear that the WIMAX spectrum is more economical, particularly when it is mapped to trends of devices to mitigate spectrum bands and modulation schemes.
Also the much lower cost of WIMAX licenses resulted in a high number of licensees, with a total of 721 and 106 license holders for WiMAX and 3G, respectively. However, the average amount of spectrum owned by a carrier is similar for the two technologies. North America is by far the leading region in number of WiMAX awarded licensees, with a total of 394 WiMAX license holders, against 186 in Europe, 97 in the Asian Pacific (APAC) region and in the Central America / Latin America (CALA) region.
In contrast to 3G licenses, the WiMAX licenses awarded around the world are essentially regional. North America is a perfect example, where 100% of its WiMAX licenses are regional, against 78% in Europe and 71% in the CALA region. This crowded environment will result in a highly fragmented, unpredictable and more competitive market, open to smaller and cost-aggressive players. It is important to note that not all licensees are active at the moment. In fact, more than half of the license holders in the WiMAX spectrum are still in the evaluation or trial stage. On the other hand, the low-cost spectrum has also attracted players that have fewer resources than the large mobile operators. Wimax spectrum was initially allocated for fixed-only applications and remains so in many countries. While 3G, with the emergence of enhanced 3G technologies like HSDPA/HSUPA, Scalable Bandwidth EV-DO, 3.9G and Super 3G, is expected to reinforce its head start over Mobile WiMAX in terms of performance, it appears clear that 3G carriers will have to compete with new players once WiMAX mobile technology is embedded in cell phones and reaches attractive price points and significant volume sometime in 2008.
Most regulators have not kept pace with the progress of technology that makes fixed-mobile convergence a reality. 77% of regulators still limit 3.5 GHz usage to fixed-only applications. More importantly, the 2.5-2.9 GHz band remains locked to WiMAX in most European countries, but the pressure on regulators to include BWA/WiMAX in the IMT 2000 definition will increase over time, once 802.16e systems become commercially available. Sweden has already opened a public consultation to allow the 2570-2620MHz band to be technology agnostic.
Whether it is fixed applications with CDMA technology or mobile applications with
BWA/WiMAX, the two fields are converging and will be competing for a share of the one-billion-subscriber market.
The major difference between WiMAX (and any new competition for wide area wireless) and established cellular is the allocation of harmonious spectrum.
In order to build mass market acceptance and deliver the full extent of ease of use, entertainment value and productivity enhancements, wireless service must be widely available across geographies and regulatory jurisdictions.
Some of the major trends influencing the ability of WIMAX to become pervasive includes:
1. Changes in regulations that make spectrum available and harmonize use of spectrum across international boundaries.
2. Multi-mode and multi-band enabling semiconductor ICs, devices and system designs that mitigate differences among spectrum regulations. As further progress is made in combining multiple radios that work in multiple frequency spectrums, the user experience will become similar to having an internationally harmonious spectrum.
3. All underlying wireless transport systems are converging upon communications protocols IP/SIP and network architectures such as IMS.
4. Communications industry revenues are increasingly driven by content and services rather than specific type of wireless network that delivers restricted/tailored voice and messaging applications. This trend will accelerate as the shift to IP/SIP and IMS takes place.
5. Markets served and revenue streams are becoming more diverse and customer-segment-specific. This diversity or ”one size does not fit all” marketplace means that service providers must have a full arsenal of solutions, from high bandwidth dedicated ”fixed” solutions to generic cellular phone services, in order to make ”highest revenue and profit density” use of spectrum.
Other factors, including the trend towards community wireless, the adoption of standards and concentration of IP into the hands of major semiconductor companies, also tend to press for liberalization, harmonization and availability of spectrum. Long term trends towards smart/cognitive radios are preceded by the current trend towards multi-mode, multi-band radios.
Moreover the aggregate 3G spectrum is in lower frequency bands than the aggregate WIMAX spectrum. This shifts the cost/Hz on a deployed equipment basis, due to the requirement for at least twice the equipment for each doubling of the frequency. However, even with that adjustment it is clear that the WIMAX spectrum is more economical, particularly when it is mapped to trends of devices to mitigate spectrum bands and modulation schemes.
Also the much lower cost of WIMAX licenses resulted in a high number of licensees, with a total of 721 and 106 license holders for WiMAX and 3G, respectively. However, the average amount of spectrum owned by a carrier is similar for the two technologies. North America is by far the leading region in number of WiMAX awarded licensees, with a total of 394 WiMAX license holders, against 186 in Europe, 97 in the Asian Pacific (APAC) region and in the Central America / Latin America (CALA) region.
In contrast to 3G licenses, the WiMAX licenses awarded around the world are essentially regional. North America is a perfect example, where 100% of its WiMAX licenses are regional, against 78% in Europe and 71% in the CALA region. This crowded environment will result in a highly fragmented, unpredictable and more competitive market, open to smaller and cost-aggressive players. It is important to note that not all licensees are active at the moment. In fact, more than half of the license holders in the WiMAX spectrum are still in the evaluation or trial stage. On the other hand, the low-cost spectrum has also attracted players that have fewer resources than the large mobile operators. Wimax spectrum was initially allocated for fixed-only applications and remains so in many countries. While 3G, with the emergence of enhanced 3G technologies like HSDPA/HSUPA, Scalable Bandwidth EV-DO, 3.9G and Super 3G, is expected to reinforce its head start over Mobile WiMAX in terms of performance, it appears clear that 3G carriers will have to compete with new players once WiMAX mobile technology is embedded in cell phones and reaches attractive price points and significant volume sometime in 2008.
Most regulators have not kept pace with the progress of technology that makes fixed-mobile convergence a reality. 77% of regulators still limit 3.5 GHz usage to fixed-only applications. More importantly, the 2.5-2.9 GHz band remains locked to WiMAX in most European countries, but the pressure on regulators to include BWA/WiMAX in the IMT 2000 definition will increase over time, once 802.16e systems become commercially available. Sweden has already opened a public consultation to allow the 2570-2620MHz band to be technology agnostic.
Whether it is fixed applications with CDMA technology or mobile applications with
BWA/WiMAX, the two fields are converging and will be competing for a share of the one-billion-subscriber market.
The major difference between WiMAX (and any new competition for wide area wireless) and established cellular is the allocation of harmonious spectrum.
In order to build mass market acceptance and deliver the full extent of ease of use, entertainment value and productivity enhancements, wireless service must be widely available across geographies and regulatory jurisdictions.
Some of the major trends influencing the ability of WIMAX to become pervasive includes:
1. Changes in regulations that make spectrum available and harmonize use of spectrum across international boundaries.
2. Multi-mode and multi-band enabling semiconductor ICs, devices and system designs that mitigate differences among spectrum regulations. As further progress is made in combining multiple radios that work in multiple frequency spectrums, the user experience will become similar to having an internationally harmonious spectrum.
3. All underlying wireless transport systems are converging upon communications protocols IP/SIP and network architectures such as IMS.
4. Communications industry revenues are increasingly driven by content and services rather than specific type of wireless network that delivers restricted/tailored voice and messaging applications. This trend will accelerate as the shift to IP/SIP and IMS takes place.
5. Markets served and revenue streams are becoming more diverse and customer-segment-specific. This diversity or ”one size does not fit all” marketplace means that service providers must have a full arsenal of solutions, from high bandwidth dedicated ”fixed” solutions to generic cellular phone services, in order to make ”highest revenue and profit density” use of spectrum.
Other factors, including the trend towards community wireless, the adoption of standards and concentration of IP into the hands of major semiconductor companies, also tend to press for liberalization, harmonization and availability of spectrum. Long term trends towards smart/cognitive radios are preceded by the current trend towards multi-mode, multi-band radios.
posted by iddy @ 8:58 PM
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